No Revolution, No Bipartisan Reconfiguration
November 5, 2008 by SocProf and tagged Politics, US Elections
Andrew Gelman has the first great post on data analysis (the only interesting thing about this totally predictable and unsurprising election). The digest:
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The election was pretty close. Obama won by about 5% of the vote, consistent with the latest polls and consistent with his forecast vote based on forecasts based on the economy. [Obama can thank the God of his choice for the economic collapse.]
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As with previous Republican candidates, McCain did better among the rich than the poor [but the very rich are less likely to vote Republican... something not surprising to anyone who has read Richistan.]
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The gap between young and old has increased–a lot. But there was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)
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By ethnicity: Barack Obama won 96% of African Americans, 68% of Latinos, 64% of Asians, and 44% of whites. In 2004, Kerry won 89% of African Americans, 55% of Latinos, 56% of Asians, and 41% of whites. So Obama gained the most among ethnic minorities. [And LGBTs in California can thank African American Obama voters for their relegation to the status of second-class citizens... there seems to have been more concern for the welfare of animals - which is legit - than for that of LGBTs, but then, we always knew that Obama was not gonna stick his neck out for on Christian grounds.]
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The red/blue map was not redrawn; it was more of a national partisan swing. [So, can we please stop the bipartisan BS? Obama was elected by Blue America and should govern as such. Anything less is betrayal... which has already happened... see his vote on FISA and the bailout.]
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